UFC 316: Underdog Sean O’Malley is Attracting Lots of Money

June's UFC schedule is full, highlighted by two major PPV events and three smaller UFC Fight Night events, but don’t mention to Johnny Avello of DraftKings that there's any fatigue among bettors regarding the mixed martial arts organization. 

On the contrary, stated Avello, a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, a Las Vegas bookmaker, and the director of race & sportsbook at DraftKings. 

“We’re not seeing fatigue,” he said. “This all started back during COVID. That’s when UFC said we’re just going to fill our slate because there’s not a lot of events going on. So, we’re going to get a lot of eyes on this product. UFC has been a good product; we’re seeing growth in it. We’re projecting a bigger handle this year than we did last year. And we just see all systems go.”

Dvalishvili Odds Leader 

The action begins on June 7 with UFC 316 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. 

“[That fight] kicks off six weeks of a great summer of UFC fighting,” Avello said. “It’s going to be a blockbuster summer in terms of handle on these fights.”

The primary matchup for UFC 316 at the Prudential Center features a bantamweight championship clash between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley, a rematch from last September, with Dvalishvili holding the title. Dvalishvili won their previous fight by unanimous decision (the Georgian delivered 214 total strikes, compared to O’Malley’s 49). 

O’Malley is the strong underdog in the UFC betting lines at DraftKings for June 7, sitting at +250. Dvalishvili is at -310. 

“They’re betting O’Malley in the rematch,” Avello said. “And when we look at the third fight, that’s no surprise that they’re betting him because we had a pretty good liability on O’Malley as the favorite in the first one.

"As far as who’s taking it, everybody’s jumping on the +250. There are reasons to bet O’Malley.”

Avello mentioned O’Malley’s remarks regarding how the lights at the Las Vegas Sphere in September hindered his ability to land shots and contributed to his loss, an issue Dvalishvili has dismissed. 

Money is on O’Malley

“We like the position we’re in,” Avello said. “We don’t mind them [bettors] taking the dog there.”

The June 7 event includes a women’s bantamweight championship match between Julianna Pena (current champion, at +455) and Kayla Harrison (-625). 

Next is UFC 317, taking place in Las Vegas on June 28 at T-Mobile Arena, featuring Ilia Topuria facing Charles Oliveira for the lightweight championship, which was vacated after Islam Makhachev, the top-ranked pound-for-pound UFC fighter, relinquished his lightweight title to shift to welterweight in search of a second belt against Jack Della Maddalena. 

No sport combines sensationalism, WWE-like character-driven marketing, and controversy quite like the UFC, and when you add in the extraordinary athleticism and mental fortitude needed to compete at a high standard, that’s what steadily attracts viewers. 

Sharps Impacting the Line

“If you’re watching a game, it’s great entertainment. Sports betting is great entertainment,” Avello said. “It’s nice to have a wager … only now, watch the game and bet prematch, or bet during the match, during each game. So, as things change during the game, if you got a feel of how the games going, you can actually put down a wager throughout the entire event.”

Regarding establishing odds for UFC matches, Avello mentioned that much of the effort hinges on assessing a fighter's career stage: some fighters are improving, others are declining – considering their fighting experience and skill level. 

Public Perception vs. Fighter Data

“There’s quite a bit that goes into it,” said Avello. “We’ve got a team that does follow this exclusively, whether it’s UFC or boxing, and that team does a really good job of getting those opening numbers up and getting them pretty correct.

“Once that initial line is established and put up, then it’s up to the general public, the sharps [professional bettors], whoever’s wagering to put their opinion into it. Of course, if you’ve got sharp bettors betting, the line will move accordingly. And then sometimes, once we get to a point where we feel it’s pretty stable and we’re getting action on both sides, then it kind of holds at that number.”